QUALITY

How to Choose the Best Forecasting Method | Marketing & Sales Example

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How to Choose the Best Forecasting Method

How to Choose the Best Forecasting Method | Marketing & Sales Example:

Hi Readers! Here, today we will learn on How to Choose the Best Forecasting Method with sales and marketing examples and also simultaneously study the different types of forecast methods in excel and their interpretation. As we know sales volume may not be constant in every month it depends on several factors like market demand, supply quantity, buyer interest, season, festive time, price, product features, etc. but as a market sales person how can you easily predict the future sales volume w.r.t your past sales data. If you can do it easily then similarly you can prepare the manufacturing/service plan accordingly. It could give an approximate idea for business planning. So forecasting is one of the common methodologies used in several types of industries for predicting the future based on the results of previous data.

So, especially we will talk about a sales-related example here, and different types of forecasting methods or processes or types. After reading this article I think you can be understood and select or choose or decide the best forecast methods.

Example:

Suppose a company PQR Ltd has the following below sales quantity for the last 8 months and based on the past 8 months data the sales manager is going to forecast the sales volume of 9th month but after calculating of forecast quantity of 9th month he is confused to select method which will be best. But here we will help you to choose and select the best forecast method, just go through the below concept.   

MonthSales Quantity
Jan150000
Feb249000
Mar351000
Apr448000
May552000
Jun656000
Jul749500
Aug851300
Sep9??

[Table 1-Sales Quantity of past 8 months]

As you know that there are so many forecasting methods available but which one will give you the best forecast value for the 9th month, it is difficult to select at an initial time so we are going to calculate the forecast value by 3 to 4 methods and will calculate the error of each method to select the best one.

Method-1: 3-Months Moving Average Forecasting

MonthSales Quantity3-Months Moving Average Forecast
Jan150000NA
Feb249000NA
Mar351000NA
Apr44800050000
May55200049333
Jun65600050333
Jul74950052000
Aug85130052500
Sep9??52267

9th Month Value= (56000+49500+51300)/3 = 52266.66

Method-2: Exponential Smoothening Forecast (let’s say, factor, alpha=0.8)

MonthSales QuantityExponential Smoothening Forecast (factor, alpha=0.8)
Jan150000NA
Feb24900050000
Mar35100049200
Apr44800050640
May55200048528
Jun65600051306
Jul74950055061
Aug85130050612
Sep9??51162

9th Month Value= 0.8*51300+0.2*50612 = 41040+10122.4 = 51162.4

Method-3: Linear Regression.

MonthSales Quantity
Jan150000
Feb249000
Mar351000
Apr448000
May552000
Jun656000
Jul749500
Aug851300
Sep9??
How to Choose the Best Forecasting Method

After plotting the graph, we found the Linear regressing function is 364.2*X+49211 and by using the function we have to calculate the forecast value as given below;

MonthSales QuantityLinear Regression
Jan15000049575
Feb24900049939
Mar35100050304
Apr44800050668
May55200051032
Jun65600051396
Jul74950051760
Aug85130052125
Sep9??52489

9th Month Value= 364.2*9 + 49211 =3277.8+49211 = 52488.8

Method-4: Polynomial Regression.
MonthSales QuantityPolynomial Regression
Jan15000049016
Feb24900049859
Mar35100050542
Apr44800051066
May55200051430
Jun65600051635
Jul74950051680
Aug85130051565
Sep9??51291
How to Choose the Best Forecasting Method

9th Month Value= -79.76*9*9 + 1082*9 +48014 =-6460.56+9738+48014 =51291.44

Methods 1 to 4 in single Table:
MonthSales Quantity3-Months Moving Average ForecastExponential Smoothening Forecast (factor, alpha=0.8)Linear RegressionPolynomial Regression
Jan150000NANA4957549016
Feb249000NA500004993949859
Mar351000NA492005030450542
Apr44800050000506405066851066
May55200049333485285103251430
Jun65600050333513065139651635
Jul74950052000550615176051680
Aug85130052500506125212551565
Sep9??52267511625248951291
How to Choose the Best Forecasting Method?

Now, the most important thing is to select or choose or decide the best method from the above 4 types of forecasting methods. As you can see in the above table we have mentioned the forecast value of the possible period of all 4 types of methods but even after getting the forecast value it is difficult to select the best method, so to choose the best one, we are supposed to calculate the error of each method.

MAF-Error ESF-Error LR-Error PR-Error
MonthSales Quantity3-Months Moving Average ForecastErrorSquare ErrorErrorSquare ErrorErrorSquare ErrorErrorSquare Error
Jan150000NANA NA 425180455984967783.7
Feb249000NANA -1000.001000000-939882472.4-859737812.3
Mar351000NANA 1800.003240000696484973458209617.5
Apr44800050000-2000.004000000-2640.006969600-26687117157-30669399375
May552000493332666.6771111113472.0012054784968937024570324900
Jun656000503335666.67321111114694.4022037391460421194974436519056368
Jul74950052000-2500.006250000-5561.1230926056-22605109408-21804751354
Aug85130052500-1200.001440000687.78473035.8-825679965.2-26570415.93
Sep9??52267MSE10182444 1095726745733044439703
RMSE3190.993310.182138.5282107.06

According to the above RMSE of all four forecasting methods, we found that the Polynomial Regression method is the best method in this case. So we can consider the forecast sale quantity of 9th month is 51291.

Free Templates / Formats of QM: we have published some free templates or formats related to Quality Management with manufacturing / industrial practical examples for better understanding and learning. if you have not yet read these free template articles/posts then, you could visit our “Template/Format” section. Thanks for reading…keep visiting techiequality.com

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How to create forecast in excel | Illustration with Example

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How to create forecast in excel

How to create forecast in excel | Illustration with Example:

Hi Readers! Here we are going to learn today on how to create forecast in excel. We have already published an article on basic knowledge and the selection process for best forecasting methods. As we know that forecasting is one of the common methodologies used in various types of industries for predicting the future based on the results of previous data. Here we will give more focus on the creation or preparation of the forecasting method in excel (note that, given excel process may be different from excel to excel depending on excel’s version).

Suppose a bike showroom owner would like to do the purchasing plan considering the last 4 month’s selling quantity, store constrain, Market demand, festive season, etc.  But he could not finalize the quantity. So, here we are going to do the forecast method to finalize the value (this is only the reference method and forecast value, the actual value may vary depending on various factors). Through this example, we shall learn only on how to create forecasts in excel (Some common methods only). We are going to use the excel-2007 version, the process may vary from excel version to version.

Illustration of How to create forecast in excel?

The last 9 months’ bike selling quantity is given below as;

MonthBike Selling Quantity
Jan1102
Feb2104
Mar3105
Apr4101
May599
Jun689
Jul7105
Aug8115
Sep9103
Oct10??

We have calculated a 4-Months Moving Average Forecast.

MonthBike Selling Quantity4-Months Moving Average Forecast
Jan1102NA
Feb2104NA
Mar3105NA
Apr4101NA
May599 =average(select top 4 months bike selling quantity)
Jun689 =average(104,105,101,99)
Jul7105 
Aug8115 
Sep9103 
Oct10?? 

Excel Function = Average (Select data array of 4 months)

In the above table we have mentioned the excel function. Accordingly calculated the 4-months moving average forecast value, the same table is given below. Just try to calculate the value by yourself in excel and verify the same.

MonthBike Selling Quantity4-Months Moving Average Forecast
Jan1102NA
Feb2104NA
Mar3105NA
Apr4101NA
May599103.00
Jun689102.25
Jul710598.50
Aug811598.50
Sep9103102.00
Oct10??103.00
How to create forecast in excel

How to calculate Exponential Smoothening Forecast? By considering the alpha value 0.8

Excel function, ESF of desire month = (0.8*previous month bike selling quantity + 0.2* previous month ESF)

MonthBike Selling QuantityExponential Smoothening Forecast (factor, alpha=0.8)
Jan1102NA
Feb2104102
Mar3105=(0.8*Bike selling quantity of Feb. month + 0.2*ESF of Feb. month) 
Apr4101 
May599 
Jun689 
Jul7105 
Aug8115 
Sep9103 
Oct10?? 
MonthBike Selling QuantityExponential Smoothening Forecast (factor, alpha=0.8)
Jan1102NA
Feb2104102
Mar3105104
Apr4101105
May599102
Jun689100
Jul710591
Aug8115102
Sep9103112
Oct10??105

Linear Regression Forecasting calculation in Excel:

MonthBike Selling Quantity
Jan1102
Feb2104
Mar3105
Apr4101
May599
Jun689
Jul7105
Aug8115
Sep9103
Oct10??

Based on the above data “month” & “bike selling quantity” plot the scatter diagram including linear regression function as per below;

How to create forecast in excel
How to create forecast in excel

From the Scatter diagram, you can get the function, here y=0.416*X + 100.4

By using the function we have calculated the forecast value which is given in the below table.

MonthBike Selling QuantityLinear Regression
Jan1102101
Feb2104101
Mar3105102
Apr4101102
May599102
Jun689103
Jul7105103
Aug8115104
Sep9103104
Oct10??105

Accordingly, you can calculate the Forecast value using several types of methods. But if you would like to choose or decide the best forecast value among all types then read our previous article.

Free Templates / Formats of QM: we have published some free templates or formats related to Quality Management with manufacturing / industrial practical examples for better understanding and learning. if you have not yet read these free template articles/posts then, you could visit our “Template/Format” section. Thanks for reading…keep visiting techiequality.com

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How to make a box plot in excel | Manufacturing Example

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box plot in excel

How to make a box plot in excel | Manufacturing Example:

Hi Readers! If are really searching to learn about how to make a box plot in excel then you are on the right platform. So here we are going to explain the same in detail with manufacturing or industrial examples for better understanding. And you can easily apply it in your manufacturing process to know the data symmetric. But also you can use several other tools as well. First of all, here we will learn what are box plots and their uses & interpretation.

What is Box plot?

The box plot (Boxplot) or box and whisker plot is a graphical representation of numerical data spread and skewness. It helps to know whether numerical data are symmetric or not. As you know that it is also called as box and whisker plot, so the plot contains box and lines (Whiskers). It generally consists of five number summary i.e. zero quartile (Q0), First quartile (Q1), Second quartile (Q2), Third quartile (Q3), Fourth quartile (Q4).

box plot in excel

[Box plot Sample figure]

Box plot terminology:

  • Zero Quartile (Q0) or Minimum number: This is the minimum value of the data set.
  • First quartile (Q1): Lowest 25% value of the data set.
  • Second quartile (Q2) or Median: Lowest 50% value of the data set or middle value of the data set.
  • Third quartile (Q3): Lowest 75% value of the data set.
  • Fourth quartile (Q4) or Maximum number: Maximum value of the data set.
  • Inter Quartile Range (IQR): Third Quartile (Q3) – First Quartile (Q1)

How to make a box plot in excel? (Step by Step guides with manufacturing example):

Suppose a manufacturing company produces an automobile part. One day a process quality engineer has instructed to quality supervisor to record the pouring temperature reading for knowing the data symmetric by making a box plot. So the supervisor started collecting data from shift-wise and recorded the data in excel for making the boxplot. The same data are given in the below table.

Pouring Temperature in °C
1495°C
1496°C
1498°C
1499°C
1500°C
1505°C
1499°C
1497°C
Now, we have to calculate the quartile value of each quartile so the Excel function of each quartile is given below;
  • Zero Quartile (Q0) or Minimum number: =QUARTILE(array, quart)
  • First quartile (Q1): =QUARTILE(array, quart)
  • Second quartile (Q2) or Median: =QUARTILE(array, quart)
  • Third quartile (Q3): =QUARTILE(array, quart)
  • Fourth quartile (Q4) or Maximum number: =QUARTILE(array, quart)

Note, in the above excel function the “array” is the data set means for the above data table its pouring temperature data set and “quart” will be different for different quartiles. Try the given below function and calculate the each quartile value (note we have calculated all the functions and box plots by using excel 2007 version only).

Final excel function of each quartile:
Pouring Temperature in °C
1495
1496
1498
1499
1500
1505
1499
1497
  • Zero Quartile (Q0): =QUARTILE(Select pouring temperature data set,0)
  • First quartile (Q1): =QUARTILE(Select pouring temperature data set,1)
  • Second quartile (Q2) or Median: =QUARTILE(Select pouring temperature data set,2)
  • Third quartile (Q3): =QUARTILE(Select pouring temperature data set,3)
  • Fourth quartile (Q4) or Maximum number: =QUARTILE(Select pouring temperature data set,4)
Calculation of Quartiles by Using Excel Function:

Zero Quartile (Q0) or Minimum: By using the excel function given in the below figure, try to calculate the Q0 value. After applying the mentioned excel function in a given data set we found the value is 1495.

quartile calculation

First quartile (Q1): Similarly we have calculated the first quartile and the rest of the quartiles by applying the above excel function. We have mentioned the excel function in the below figure and applied the same in the pouring temperature data set and found the value is 1497.

quartile calculation
Second quartile (Q2) or Median:

Go through the below figure and calculate the second quartile value, we have found the value 1499.

quartile calculation in excel
Third quartile (Q3):
quartile calculation

Fourth quartile (Q4) or Maximum number: Apply the excel function, given in the below figure and calculate the quartile value.

quartile calculation

After applying the individual quartile’s excel function, we have summarized the all values and recorded them in the below table. Next, we are going to make a box plot in excel, so follow the below given complete guidelines or step-by-step process to make the box and whisker plot in excel.  

Q1 =1497
Min. or Q0 =1495
Q2 =1499
Max. or Q4 =1505
Q3 =1499
Upper error bar (Q4-Q3) =6
Lower error bar (Q1-Q0) =2
Step by Step Guides on How to make a box plot in excel:

Step1:

As you know that we have already calculated the quartiles values, just arrange the quartile value as per the given below figure and select the all values after that follow the step-1 to step-4 (as per the below figure).

box plot in excel

Step2: Select the option “Switch Row/Column” in excel

box plot in excel

Step3: Select the excel option as per instructions given in the below figure.

box plot in excel
Step4:

In the above process, we have plotted the box and now we have to make the whisker, so follow the below instruction as per beneath figure.

box plot in excel

Step5: Follow the below instruction

box plot in excel
Step6:

Here, we will learn the steps to make the lower whisker, so go through the below figure and follow the given instructions.

box plot in excel

Step7: similarly, we will make the upper whisker by following the below given steps

box plot in excel
Step8: Follow the steps in the below figure
box plot in excel

Step9:

box plot in excel
Conclusion and Interpretation of the above Box Plot:

As you can see the above box plot that the data are not spread in symmetric. Here we are also going to plot the histogram to compare the both boxplot and histogram to know the comparison value. You can learn more about the step-by-step guide to plotting histogram in excel with examples and also can download the histogram template or format.

Histogram:

Step1: Enter the Pouring temperature reading in excel and then calculate the interval value by using the excel function given in below figure. Next select the option “data” in excel sheet and then select “Data analysis” option and then finally select the histogram option.

box plot in excel

Step2: Select the appropriate data set as per below instruction given in figure

box plot in excel
Histogram

 Now, Histogram is ready so here we will compare the both the plot histogram vs Box plot

comparison

From both the graph we have concluded that data are not symmetrically distributed (Graph are not symmetric).

Free Templates / Formats of QM: we have published some free templates or formats related to Quality Management with manufacturing / industrial practical examples for better understanding and learning. if you have not yet read these free template articles/posts then, you could visit our “Template/Format” section. Thanks for reading…keep visiting techiequality.com

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Attribute MSA |How to do Attribute type MSA Study| Example |Acceptance Criteria

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Attribute MSA

Attribute MSA | How to do Attribute type MSA Study | Example | Acceptance Criteria

Hi readers! Today in this section we will be discussing in several topics on Attribute MSA, how to do Attribute MSA analysis, and acceptance criteria with practical industrial manufacturing examples. Measurement system analysis is one of the core AIAG tools, which is frequently used in automotive /automobile manufacturing industries to know the percentage of effectiveness, consumer risk, producer risk, etc. of those persons who are visually checking or doing inspection of parts, components, in-process products or finish products, etc.

You would love to read the below topic;

Gage R and R |How to do MSA Study | Acceptance Criteria

Attribute MSA

As you know how important visual checking /inspection is in the manufacturing industry, your wrong checking /inspection can affect the product performance or there may be a chance of rejection of the product at any stage. So it’s a very important to periodically monitor the effectiveness, miss-alarm, and false-alarm of inspectors, otherwise there will be high producer and consumer risks.

How to do Attribute type MSA Analysis?

Step-1: List out the appraisers.

Step-2: Need to have 50 references and at least 10 ‘not ok’ items.

Total references /items /components =50 nos
Ok reference =34 nos
Not OK reference =16 nos

Step-3: Note the observation of all three appraisers with 3-trials per appraiser

 Appraiser-1Appraiser-2Appraiser-3
No of opportunities150 nos150 nos150 nos
No of trial per appraiser333

Step-4: Calculate the percentage of effectiveness, misalarm and falsealarm of all individual appraisers.

Interpretation of Result and Acceptance Criteria with Example:

Suppose an organization appointed three inspectors at the final dispatch area for visual checking of the finished product. They are basically being engaged to check the visual defects. After a couple of Months Company got a customer complaint related to a visual defect and the same complaint has been analyzed by Sr. Engineer. During the validation of potential causes, he also studied the attribute type MSA of all three appraisers and he found that one of the appraiser’s percentage of miss-alarm was >5. So finally, Sr. engineer has further analyzed the root cause.  And according to the root cause action plan has been taken by him as on-job training and also he has increased the frequency of Attribute-MSA study. In this scenario, you can imagine that how important the Attribute type MSA studies are for inspectors who are doing the visual inspection.

Acceptance Criteria:

Another important part is the interpretation of the attribute type MSA study report and its decision, generally, the appraiser can be acceptable when the percentage of effectiveness is greater than or equal to 90, the miss-alarm less than or equal to 2, False-alarm less than or equal to 5. And also appraiser can be marginally acceptable but may need improvement when percentage of effectiveness greater than or equal 80, miss-alarm less than or equal to 5, False-alarm less than or equal to 10.

Similarly, the appraiser can be unacceptable when the percentage of effectiveness is less than 80, the miss-alarm greater than 5, False-alarm greater than 10.

The general thumb rule of kappa is that, if the kappa value > (greater than) 0.75 then it indicates good agreement (but note one thing that the maximum kappa value will be 1 and it indicates excellent agreement). and similarly, the kappa value < (less than) indicates the poor agreement.

Please note that all the above acceptance criteria are the general thumb rule.

learn more about multiple types of questions and answers of MSA. then click here.

Free Templates / Formats of QM: we have published some free templates or formats related to Quality Management with manufacturing / industrial practical examples for better understanding and learning. if you have not yet read these free template articles/posts then, you could visit our “Template/Format” section. Thanks for reading…keep visiting techiequality.com

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How to Plot Scatter Diagram in Excel? |Guides with example | Interpretation

Scatter Diagram Template |Industrial Example |Download Excel Format

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How to calculate effective Production Sequencing?

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Production Sequencing

How to calculate effective Production Sequencing?

Hi readers! Today we will be discussing on how to calculate effective production sequencing. Production sequencing is the most important part of PPC (Production planning and control). Its helps to meet the on-time customer delivery and enhance customer satisfaction and the Brand name.

Before doing the production sequencing, at least prioritize and consider some factors like processing time, due date, delivery time, flow time minimization, work-in-process inventory minimization, idle time of machines minimization, etc. for effective sequencing. And another important part is the methods of priority for production sequencing like [1] FCFS ( First come first served), [2] SOT ( Shortest operating time), [3] STR (Slack time remaining), [4] EDD (Earliest due date), [5] STROP (Slack time remaining per operation), [6] CR (Critical Ratio), [7] LCFS (Last- come first served).

Understanding of Several Methods:

  • First come first served: Production is run w.r.t first arriving in the department, let’s say the first week of the month the “X” customer has ordered 5nos and 10nos of product-1 and product-2 for supply within the next two weeks. And later the same customer ordered product-3 in the second week of the same month and they need product supply at the end of the second week. Now the important thing is how to apply FCFS methods to select the product sequence means with the product need to be started first for manufacturing. Details of the calculation have discussed below example.
  •  Shortest operating time: Manufacturing the product with the shortest processing time means the shortest completion time.
  • Slack time remaining: Time remaining before the due date remaining completion time.
  • EDD (Earliest due date): Produce the product with the earliest due date first.
Production Sequencing
Production Sequencing

Step by step calculation of effective Production Sequencing with manufacturing example:

Here, we are going to calculate the production sequencing with the different scenarios by applying multiple methods.

Manufacturing Example:

Suppose a company namely XYZ Pvt. Ltd has got an order of 6 types of product, details of orders are given below.

Product NameDelivery DaysProcessing Time (Days)
A-Prod64
B-Prod75
C-Prod83
D-Prod97
E-Prod32
F-Prod21

After getting the orders, the production supervisor has applied several methods like [1] FCFS ( First come first served), [2] SOT ( Shortest operating time), [3] STR (Slack time remaining), [4] EDD (Earliest due date), [5] STROP (Slack time remaining per operation), [6] CR (Critical), [7] LCFS (Last- come first served) and selected the effective production sequence among all the methods.

First, he has applied the FCFS (First-Come First Served) Method. All the above products (Prod-1 to Prod-6) are completed in a single machine.

Methods-1 (FCFS):
Product NameProcessing Time (Days)Delivery DaysFlow Time in DaysOn-time or late delivery in days
A-Prod464On-time
B-Prod574+5=9Late=2
C-Prod384+5+3=12Late=4
D-Prod794+5+3+7=19Late=10
E-Prod234+5+3+7+2=21Late=18
F-Prod124+5+3+7+2+1=22Late=20
First come first served Method

According to the FCFS method, the supervisor has calculated the sequence, on-time, and late delivery time in days. As we can see that only A-prod can deliver on time. and the rest 5 products will be late by 2,4,10,18,20 days. On average a job will be late by 9 days.

Method-2-SOT (Shortest operating time):
Product NameDelivery DaysProcessing Time (Days)Flow Time in DaysOn time or late delivery in days
F-Prod211On time
E-Prod321+2=3On time
C-Prod831+2+3=6On time
A-Prod641+2+3+4=10Late=4
B-Prod751+2+3+4+5=15Late=8
D-Prod971+2+3+4+5+7=22Late=13
Shortest operating time Method

The above data indicates that 3 products will be on time. and the rest three products will be late by 4,8 and 13 days. On average, a product will be late by 4.17 days (4+8+13 /5).

Method-3- EDD (Earliest due date):
Product NameDelivery DaysProcessing Time (Days)Flow Time in DaysOn-time or late delivery in days
F-Prod211On-time
E-Prod321+2=3On-time
A-Prod641+2+4=7Late=3days
B-Prod751+2+4+5=12Late=7days
C-Prod831+2+4+5+3=15Late=12days
D-Prod971+2+4+5+3+7=22Late=15days
Earliest due date Method

After applying the method-3, you can see that only 2 products i.e. “F-Prod”, “E-Prod” will be on-time. And rest 4 products will be late. But on an average a product will be late by 6.16days.

Conclusion:

Here, we will compare the above three methods and will find the best among them and accordingly the schedule will be decided.

MethodsFlow Time in Days (total)Average Lateness in daysOn-time delivery(total)
First come first served87 days9 days1 number
Shortest operating time57 days4.17 days3 number
Earliest due date60 days6.16 days2 number

According to the above comparison of three methods, the shortest operating time method result is the best one compared to the other two methods. In this way, you can select the best and most effective production sequencing.

As per the SOT (Shortest operating time) method, First, you have to start production of “F-Prod” and then. need to follow the below sequence as;

Product NameProduction Sequence
F-Prod1st
E-Prod2nd
C-Prod3rd
A-Prod4th
B-Prod5th
D-Prod6th

Free Templates / Formats of QM: we have published some free templates or formats related to Quality Management with manufacturing / industrial practical examples for better understanding and learning. if you have not yet read these free template articles/posts then, you could visit our “Template/Format” section. Thanks for reading…keep visiting techiequality.com

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Turtle Diagram Example | QMS Standard Requirement | Free Template | Format

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Turtle Diagram Example

Turtle Diagram Example | QMS Standard Requirement | Free Template |Format:

Hi readers! Today, we will discuss on various types of turtle diagram example of the manufacturing process, incoming inspection process, internal auditing process and pre-dispatch inspection process, etc. and also we have provided the link for the sample template/ format of the turtle diagram in below. Just download the format and customize it according to your process requirements. 

DOWNLOAD– Sample Turtle Diagram Template/format.

Turtle Diagram:

The turtle diagram is a visual tool that is generally used to represent details elements of a process like input, output, method, resources, performance, etc. it helps to improve the process performance. In many industries they are using the turtle diagram for process details and interaction, mapping, etc. so it’s a very useful and popular visual tool.

QMS Standard (ISO 9001 & IATF 16949) Requirement w.r.t Turtle Diagram:

The turtle diagram is not a mandatory requirement of QMS standards like ISO 9001 and IATF 16949, but you can use this diagram to represent the process details like the process’s method, resource requirement, process measurement, process interaction, input and output of the process, etc. To comply the clause-4.4.1 of the QMS standard (ISO 9001 & IATF 16949) requirement, many organizations have implemented the Turtle diagram but there is so many other diagrams also exist that you can use like Matrix, Flow charts, process mapping, SIPOC, etc. but Turtle Diagram is a very useful and easy diagram so that, many organization is being used it.

How to Implement Turtle Diagrams in the Manufacturing Industry? And Nomenclature:

Before discussing of implementation of the Turtle Diagram, we have to illustrate the terms related Turtle Diagram, first. If your organization is certified with QMS standards like ISO 9001 and IATF 16949 Then, you are compulsory to comply with the standard requirement of clause 4.4.1, To do so, you may prepare a turtle diagram but you can represent it in other ways as well. But the Turtle Diagram is a frequently used diagram and very easy to use. So, here we are going to describe it in detail.

As you know that in the wide range the QMS standard asked for process details like Process interaction, Input of process, Output of process, resources, methods, and Process results, etc.

Note, that a Turtle diagram is not a mandatory requirement of the standard to represent the process requirement, but you can prepare it to do so.

Nomenclature of Turtle Diagram:
Turtle Diagram Example

In the above Turtle Diagram, we have divided resources into two categories like [1] With Whom [2] With What. Details of Each and every category are mentioned below.

With Whom: It is nothing but its talk about the people (Personnel) involved with the Process.

With What: Resources requirement to execute the process like infrastructure, Machine, instrument, equipment, material, etc.

How Done: Method, Phases how to complete the process in successfully. For example, a list of documents like Procedures, Work instructions, test methods, specifications, drawings, etc.

What Result: Process-related objectives and targets, monitoring and measurement-related results, etc.

Input: Details of process requirement.

Output: Process output.

How to Implement Turtle Diagram in Manufacturing Industry?

Here, I’m going to share my own experience regarding turtle diagram implementation with an industrial example. Two years back, when our organization thought about QMS certification, Our MR has prepared QMS implementation Roadmap and he has given me one important responsibility for preparing the documentation and implementation of ISO/IATF clause 4.4.1 requirement for the Incoming material inspection process and they have imparted training on this subject as well. I think this is the right platform to share my own experience on it so that other can get benefits and they can prepare this diagram, also. But the requirement of ISO/IATF clause 4.4.1 documentation is fulfilled by preparing various docs. But turtle diagram is one of them, but the turtle diagram is not a mandatory requirement of the standard. Anyway, I am going to share how to prepare the turtle diagram for the Incoming material Inspection Process.

Step By Step Process:
  • Understand the process in detail by consulting with the pertinent process owner or head.
  • List out the resource requirements, like trained personnel, inspector, infrastructure, machine, instrument, equipment, lighting facility, details input to execute the process, process method, SOP, other related support, Process results, and finally, the output of this process.
  • After getting all the information, now it’s time to prepare the Turtle Diagram.

On the same subject (Incoming Material Inspection Process), we have prepared the Turtle Diagram for your easy understanding, just go through it.  

Turtle Diagram Example
Turtle Diagram Example (Incoming Material Inspection Process)

FAQ:

There is a misunderstanding in many organizations that the Turtle diagram is the mandatory requirement of QMS Standard to visualize the process details of each and every element.

But the one-line answer is “NO”, there is no such specific requirement for a turtle diagram. You can represent and fulfill the QMS standard requirement by your own principle as well. But many organizations are being used the Turtle Diagram.

Free Templates / Formats of QM: we have published some free templates or formats related to Quality Management with manufacturing / industrial practical examples for better understanding and learning. if you have not yet read these free template articles/posts then, you could visit our “Template/Format” section. Thanks for reading…keep visiting techiequality.com\

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Plan Do Check Act Cycle | PDCA Cycle Manufacturing Example | Implementation

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Plan Do Check Act Cycle

Plan Do Check Act Cycle | PDCA Cycle Manufacturing Example | Implementation:

Hi readers! Here, we will discuss the details on PDCA cycle (Plan Do Check Act Cycle) with the Industrial/ Manufacturing example. The PDCA Cycle is the most popular cycle/ method used in industry/ organization for continuous/continual improvement and process improvement and problem solving. The PDCA cycle consists of four phases i.e. [1] Plan, [2] Do, [3] Check, & [4] Act. The Plan-Do-Check-Act Cycle is also called as Deming Cycle/Wheel, PDSA Cycle (Plan-Do-Study-Act), or Plan-Do-Check-Adjust Cycle.  

Plan Do Check Act Cycle / PDCA Cycle / Deming Cycle:

Plan Do Check Act Cycle

Basically, the PDCA (Plan-Do-Check-Act) cycle is used for continual/ continuous improvement. If you find any problem in the production process or would like to improve the production process then you can easily apply this management approach. But you can apply this PDCA cycle to any type of improvement project/ objectives. It is not only used for Process improvement but also used for Problem-solving. The details of individual stages /phases are described in below.

Plan: To develop the Potential solutions.

Do: To execute the Plan.

Check: To Review, verify, inspect, evaluate, analyze the data, and compare the results (Before and after) w.r.t Objectives that the plan/solution is satisfactory or not.

Act: If the solution is satisfactory then implement it. If it is not satisfactory then take the containment action and repeat the Cycle.

How to Implement PDCA Cycle in the Manufacturing Industry for Continuous/ Continual Improvement:

I am so excited to share my own experience. I have implemented so many improvement projects through the PDCA Cycle, but here I am going to share only manufacturing process improvement-related examples.

When we had prepared the monthly quality report of the manufacturing process, we got that the shrinkage problem was a vital problem and almost contribute the 30% among the entire problem and on the basis of the report we have decided to improve the process and to reduce at least shrinkage defect from 30% to 5%. Accordingly, objective has been taken and followed the PDCA cycle to resolve it and to improve the manufacturing process.

PLAN:

Before applying the method, we have formed a Team and described the problem, took the objective, and prepared the plan, which is described as below.

Step-by-step method that we have followed to prepare the Plan:

1] To Form a Team.

2] To Take an Objective.

3] To Prepare the Roadmap /Activities flow chart.

Team Formation:
Name of Project Leader: Mr. S
Name of Team members:
Mr. G
Mr. P
Mr. N

Note: During the team formation, you may consider the members from different and different sections, that are directly associated with your process activity. Because you can easily manage your activities.

Now, the next step is to take an Objective.

Objective: To reduce the Shrinkage defect contribution from 30% to 5% within 3 months.

According to the above objective we have prepared the Plan. And details of the plan are described below.

ActivitiesResponsibilityTime-Line
Data CollectionMr. GWithin 7 days from the starting date of assignment.
Cause and Effect diagram PreparationMr. G & Mr. P(Within 9 days from the starting date of assignment)
Identify the significant causesMr. G & Mr. PWithin 15 days from the starting date of assignment.
Why-Why AnalysisMr. G, Mr. P & Mr. NWithin 20 days from the starting date of assignment.
Identify the Root CauseMr. G, Mr. P & Mr. NWithin 21 days from the starting date of assignment.
Corrective Action planMr. G, Mr. P & Mr. NWithin 25 days from the starting date of assignment.
Preventive Action planMr. G, Mr. P & Mr. NWithin 25 days from the starting date of assignment.
Trial implementationMr. G, Mr. P, Mr. N & Mr. SWithin 75 days from the starting date of assignment.
Comparative study w.r.t ObjectivesMr. G, Mr. P, Mr. N & Mr. SWithin 90 days from the starting date of assignment.
[Table-A, Activities Plan Flow, Plan do check act example /PDCA Example]

 Note: The above activities may change according to the nature of the improvement project. Or whatever objective you have taken. The Aforesaid plan template is only for your reference.

In this way, you may prepare the Plan. Now, we have to move on to the next phase of the PDCA Cycle i.e. “DO”

DO:

In the “DO” phase, you are supposed to implement the Plan that you have prepared in Plan phase. As you can see that we have already prepared the Activity plan and represented in Table-A, and the same implemented.

According to the management approval, we have manufactured the 5-samples as trial implementation. And next activity was done in the “Check” phase.

CHECK:

After trial implementation, whatever data we have collected, just we analyzed all the things, did the gap analysis and we compared the results w.r.t Objectives. And recorded the significant points & collected the feedback as well.

As you know that this phase is important so you have to study and analyze all the things. Similarly, we have compared the results w.r.t Objectives and found the below result.

Before Data (old methods/ before implementation of improvement plan)

Shrinkage defect contribution = 30%.

After Data (New methods/ after implementation of improvement plan)

Shrinkage defect contribution = 5%.

Plan Do Check Act Cycle

Conclusion: We have found that the improvement plan is effective and satisfactory.

We have achieved the Objective’s target value. So we have informed to top management about the action plan results to act on it.

ACT:

In the above example, we have found that the solution/improvement plan is satisfactory. So we have finally implemented the new action plan and standardized it. 

If applicable then do the horizontal deployment also.

FAQ:
What do you need to do if your objective will not be achieved?

Ans.: In the “Check” phase when you will find that your objective is not achieved, then you have to take the containment action and you have to repeat the PDCA cycle until resolve the problem or improve the process.

What does PDCA stand for?

Ans.: The full form of PDCA is Plan-Do-Check-Act, and also it is called as Plan do study act, plan do check adjust, Deming Cycle, and Shewhart Cycle.

How does PDCA Improve Quality?

Ans.: Go through the above manufacturing example (Shrinkage Issue), step by Step-by-step phases are mentioned there.

How do you use the PDCA cycle?

Ans.: As you know the PDCA cycle is generally used for continuous /continual improvement. To do so, you have to follow the cycle principles.

1] To form a team

2] To take an objectives

3] To prepare the roadmap/ activities plan

4] Step by step implement the plan.

5] Study the data and compare the results with respect to the objective.

6] Implement the solution (Final implementation); if the result is coming satisfactory otherwise take a containment action and repeat the PDCA cycle again until achieve the Objective’s target value.

Free Templates / Formats of QM: we have published some free templates or formats related to Quality Management with manufacturing / industrial practical examples for better understanding and learning. if you have not yet read these free template articles/posts then, you could visit our “Template/Format” section. Thanks for reading…keep visiting techiequality.com

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What is Preventive Maintenance? | Predictive Maintenance |Types & Example

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What is Preventive Maintenance

What is Preventive Maintenance? | Predictive Maintenance |Types & Example:

Hi readers! Here, we are going to describe the concept of maintenance, types, examples, etc., basically, in this article, we will give more focus on what is preventive maintenance. Predictive maintenance and manufacturing examples and also on how to start a different type of maintenance activities in manufacturing industries. In manufacturing industries, we know very well how important the machine/ equipment’s condition get optimum productivity. Machines are subject to deterioration due to their use and exposure to environmental conditions. So, to maintain the machine condition we may need to carry out the maintenance of machines and equipment. The main purposes of maintenance are;

  • To keep the operation in an optimum working condition.
  • To increase the up-time of the machine.
  • Less expenditure on repairs.
  • To reduce the break-down percentage.
  • To reduce the MTTR Value and increase the MTBF value.
  • Lesser overtime pay for maintenance personnel.
  • Increases productivity and minimizes waste and increases the rate of quality.
  • To meet the time schedule of product delivery to customers.
  • Reduces the downtime of the machines.
  • To reduce the cost of downtime, it means when your machine’s downtime will be reduced then the idle time of the machine, workers, etc. will remain reduced and the respective cost as well. And others cost shall be reduced like scrap cost, rework cost, repair cost, maintenance labour, and overhead cost, etc.  
  • To prolong the useful life of the machine and equipment.
  • To provide a condition of the machine that would permit their operation in the manner required for the process and without interruption to plans involving their use.

Maintenance:

We have already mentioned above the benefits of maintenance that why it is important in manufacturing industries, but anyway it is classified into many types based on different and different factors/ rules /operations, etc.  Like [1] Mechanical maintenance, [2] Utility maintenance, [3] Electrical maintenance, [4] Machine maintenance, [5] Tool maintenance, etc.  And similarly, it is also classified into different types like Preventive maintenance, Predictive maintenance, Breakdown Maintenance, Capital replacement, Planned maintenance, Schedule maintenance, and Corrective maintenance. Etc.

What is Preventive Maintenance

What is Preventive Maintenance?

Preventive maintenance is routine / time-based maintenance where actions are taken in a planned manner to prevent the breakdown of the machine. The main aim is to find out the problem and to fix it before it creates an issue. Generally, in industries, the common popular types of maintenance are used as [1] Preventive and, [2] Predictive maintenance. And also some industries followed and implemented the TPM activities.  

Advantages of PM (Preventive Maintenance):
  • Prolongs asset lifespans.
  • Increased productivity and production.
  • Greater safety of the workforce.
  • Reduces the breakdown and increases the MTBF time.
  • Reduce the scraps, rejection, and rework of products.
  • Lower repair and maintenance costs, etc.
How to start or deploy Preventive Maintenance in Manufacturing Industries?

I am going to share my own experience here, whatever I have learned from a decade of time. Both preventive and predictive maintenance is a useful activity in manufacturing industries. So, if you would like to start Preventive maintenance in your organization then, just follow the below steps.

Step-1:

Go through the past data of breakdown process-wise / area-wise, then workstation-wise, and finally machine-wise. And also carefully read the machine manual, drawing, and related documents to understand the machine function, lubrication system, hydraulic system, etc.

Step-2:

Prepare the fishbone/cause & effect / Ishikawa Diagram of all failures.

Step-3:

Prepare the Standard Operating Procedure.

Step-4:

Prepare the Preventive maintenance check sheet / Checklist.

Step-5:

Prepare the activity road map including the responsibility for each and every activity, plan, and schedule.

Step-6:

Implement the road map, SOP, plan, schedule, and do checking w.r.t check sheet/checklist.

Step-7:

Analyze the data and take the action.

Step-8:

Review and update the documents like SOP, and check-sheet.

Step-9:

If applicable, do the horizontal deployment.

Example:

We have decided to start the Preventive maintenance of Process-1, Process-2, and Process-3, So accordingly both plan and schedule have been prepared.

Preventive Maintenance Plan of Process-1, having total 4 machines, M1, M2, M3 & M4.

MonthWeek-1Week-2Week-3Week-4
Jan.M1M2M4M3
Feb.M3M1M2M4
Mar.M3M4M1M2
Apr.M4M3M2M1
May.M3M2M1M4
Jun.M2M1M4M3
Jul.M1M2M3M4
Aug.M4M1M2M3
Sep.M3M4M1M2
Oct.M4M3M2M1
Nov.M3M2M1M4
Dec.M2M1M4M3
Annual PM Plan

After consultation with the production department and considering machine availability Sr. Maintenance Engineer has prepared the Preventive maintenance schedule and carried it out accordingly.

PM Schedule for the Month of Jan’yyyy.

M/CWeek-1Week-2Week-3Week-4
M1-Plan4.4.yy /Sunday
Actual
M2-Plan11.4.yy/Sunday
Actual
M4-Plan18.4.yy/Sunday
Actual
M3-Plan24.4.yy/Saturday
Actual
Monthly PM Schedule
What is Predictive Maintenance?

Predictive maintenance is condition-based maintenance that monitors the condition & performance of equipment to reduce the probability of failure.

Advantages of Predictive Maintenance:
  • Improve asset reliability.
  • Provide better product quality.
  • Improve the condition of equipment, etc.
The basic requirements for good maintenance practices:

The following are the basic requirements for achieving good maintenance practices as;

  • Good supervision of the maintenance department.
  • Do the maintenance plan and schedule a consultation with the production department, electrical department, utility service department, etc., and prioritize the machine to be covered under maintenance.
  • Maintenance personnel should be well-trained.
  • SOP, standard, to be followed.
  • Adequate stock of spares should be kept.
  • A checklist, logbook, and maintenance register should be maintained.
  • 5’S to be maintained.
  • CLIT to be followed.

Free Templates / Formats of QM: we have published some free templates or formats related to Quality Management with manufacturing / industrial practical examples for better understanding and learning. if you have not yet read these free template articles/posts then, you could visit our “Template/Format” section. Thanks for reading…keep visiting techiequality.com

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Types of Productivity with Example |Productivity Formula |Calculation

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Types of Productivity with Example

Types of Productivity with Example |Productivity Formula |Calculation

Hi readers! Today we will discuss on types of productivity with example. Productivity is an economic measure of the effective use of resources. It means how much output is obtained w.r.t effective usages of input in a given time period.

PRODUCTIVITY: It is a ratio of output to input.

Productivity = Output / Input.

P = Value of output / Cost of Input

Types of Productivity with Example

The units of output and input may vary from industry to industry. But some common units of outputs are KWH, Units, Tonnes, MT, litres, KG, and similarly, an input could be time, cost, etc. Inputs are resources such as labour, energy, materials etc. used to produce the output such as goods or services. And also, the output may be measured per shift, per week, per month or per hour.

Types of Productivity with Example:

Productivity is generally classified into three types as [1] Partial Productivity, [2] Multifactor Productivity, [3] Total Productivity. 

Partial Productivity = Output / Single Input.

For example, a company produced 2000 pieces of finished product per day involving 2 labours per shift. Here we would like to calculate the labour productivity.

Labour productivity = 2000 / (6*8)

= 2000 / 48

= 41.66 pieces per hour.

Other common terms used to calculate the partial productivity industry are Machine productivity, capital productivity, Material Productivity, etc.

Multifactor Productivity = Output / more than one Input.

For example, a company produces 2000 pieces of finished product per day with input like labour cost $200, Machine cost $300, and material cost of $500. What is the multifactor productivity?

Multifactor Productivity = 2000 pieces / ($200+$300+$500)

= 2000 pieces/ $1000

= 2 Pieces per dollar.

Total Productivity = Output / All Input.

For calculating the total productivity you have to consider the values of output in rupees and cost of all inputs in rupees.

Note that productivity is generally calculated to know the performance, effectiveness, and etc. but the challenging thing is how to improve productivity. For doing so either you have to increase the output or decrease the input.

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Free Templates / Formats of QM: we have published some free templates or formats related to Quality Management with manufacturing / industrial practical examples for better understanding and learning. if you have not yet read these free template articles/posts then, you could visit our “Template/Format” section. Thanks for reading…keep visiting techiequality.com

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5G Problem solving technique | Manufacturing Example |Free Template

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5G Problem solving technique

5G Problem solving technique | Manufacturing Example |Free Template

5G Problem solving technique is the most popular Japanese technique, this will help and guide you on how to solve problems. Many problems is being occurred day to day in manufacturing industries like machine breakdowns, customer complaints, in-process rejection problems, material problems, etc.  So to tackle the everyday problem in an unsystematic way is a big challenging work. To overcome this issue, you can follow the 5S Japanese concept to resolve actual/real place problems. It’s namely called 5G because every Japanese word starts with the letter “G” i.e. [1] GEMBA, [2] GEMBUTSU, [3] GENJITSU, [4] GENRI, [5] GENSOKU; these are the 5G where you have to find out the causes. In some cases, you can propose and predict the right cause without visiting the real place and analyzing the actual facts. So this method helps you to resolve the problem.

DOWNLOAD Template- 5W1H, CAPA, 5W2H, 4M check sheet, 8D Format.

5G Problem solving Technique with Manufacturing Example:

Here I’m sharing my own experience that once upon a time I had made a great mistake during an analysis of a customer complaint, one of our customers informed us 5% of the last batch of consignment products had been rejected due to a pinhole issue. Immediately after receiving the customer complaint, we called a meeting with all my team members. And we all started discussing in the conference room to find out the cause of the problem and finally, we proposed an action plan and implemented the same but later on we faced the same problem again.

Our hypothesis / predicted root cause of the failure was invalid. From this experience, I learned that we can’t find an effective action plan by hypothesis or prediction. We must investigate the actual things and verify the principles. And finally, we applied the Japanese technique 5G for problem-solving i.e. [1] GEMBA, [2] GEMBUTSU, [3] GENJITSU, [4] GENRI, [5] GENSOKU.

5G Problem solving technique
Before continuing with the above example I would like to elaborate on the 5G Technique /Method.

GEMBA: Go to the Real /Actual Place.

It’s the place/location where the problem actually occurred e.g. Shop floor. First of all, we have to visit the shop floor or the actual location where we need to start the investigation.

GEMBUTSU: Examine the objects /machine/tools etc.

Your problem-solving team members should examine the machine, parts, objects, and tools that were involved in the failure. During the examination, you can find any clues of failure.

GENJITSU: Check the real Facts

Your team must collect the before and after data and test report, and the team should link the data to the actual facts that what really happened.

GENRI: Refer to the theory /verify the principle.

The team should verify the principle and condition of the machine/equipment/tools etc.

 GENSOKU: Check the process parameters /SOP/Standards.

In this technique the team member should check and verify the process parameters, SOP, Work procedure, Visual instruction, and one-point lesson are followed by operators and that there is no any deviation.

How to apply 5G technique in the manufacturing industry?

We will elaborate on this section continuing with the above example that our action plan against the customer complaint (Pin-hole problem) was not valid. When we applied the 5G technique, the action plan was very effective. First of all, all the team members visited to the shop floor to know the exact problem when we examined the problem we came to know that the actual problem was a blow-hole but not a pin-hole. This was visualized when we went through the G-2 (Gembutsu).

Next, we continued the rest of three-G, some clues we found at the stage of Genjutsu from the Core curing time and some from Gensoku. That curing procedure was not being maintained as per the standard operating procedure. And finally, we concluded after completing the 5G technique on a fact basis that the core curing process was not maintained as per SOP. This is my own experience that how I could able to find out the problem causes using the 5G technique. Given below are the 5-steps, details meanings, concepts, and illustrations of 5G.

Step-by-Step Guide to 5G Problem Solving Technique Application
Step-1GEMBAGo to the real placeCreate a team and visit to the shop floor or a place where the problem occurred
Step-2GEMBUTSUExamine the objectsExamine the machine /tools /equipment/non-conforming pats to know the clues
Step-3GENJITSUCheck the real factsCollect the data and analyze it. And also do the countermeasure.
Step-4GENRIVerify the principleVerify the current practices and condition of m/c, equipment, tools, etc.
Step-5GENSOKUCheck the standardsTo check the process characteristics, SOP, and work procedure, whether it is being followed or not.

Free Templates / Formats of QM: we have published some free templates or formats related to Quality Management with manufacturing / industrial practical examples for better understanding and learning. if you have not yet read these free template articles/posts then, you could visit our “Template/Format” section. Thanks for reading…keep visiting techiequality.com

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